XAUUSD Factor Signal

GC=F · probability of an up-move next bar · updated 2026-07-21 19:30:50 UTC ·

Next 1 min

DOWN
4,088.402026-07-21 15:20:00-04:00
▲ 44.0% edge 12.0% ▼ 56.0%
STRONG conviction
Factor breakdown
  • VWAP mean-reversion -0.144
  • Stochastic momentum -0.074
  • Volume-confirmed conviction +0.046
  • Candle microstructure (body/range) -0.040
  • US Dollar (DXY) — inverse macro driver +0.022
  • RSI mean-reversion (overbought/oversold) -0.020
  • Bollinger band mean-reversion +0.018
  • Price momentum (trend-following pressure) -0.014

Next 5 min

DOWN
4,088.402026-07-21 15:20:00-04:00
▲ 46.7% edge 6.5% ▼ 53.3%
STRONG conviction
Factor breakdown
  • RSI mean-reversion (overbought/oversold) +0.238
  • VWAP mean-reversion -0.133
  • Bollinger band mean-reversion -0.103
  • Stochastic momentum -0.072
  • Volatility regime (ATR breakout vs chop) -0.046
  • London/NY liquidity session -0.028
  • Volume-confirmed conviction -0.024
  • Candle microstructure (body/range) -0.023

Next 15 min

DOWN
4,088.402026-07-21 15:15:00-04:00
▲ 44.2% edge 11.6% ▼ 55.8%
STRONG conviction
Factor breakdown
  • Candle microstructure (body/range) -0.114
  • Bollinger band mean-reversion -0.060
  • Volatility regime (ATR breakout vs chop) -0.055
  • London/NY liquidity session -0.045
  • RSI mean-reversion (overbought/oversold) -0.034
  • Stochastic momentum -0.027
  • EMA trend alignment (9 vs 21) +0.023
  • Silver 3-bar move (metals confirmation) +0.015

Next 30 min

DOWN
4,088.402026-07-21 15:00:00-04:00
▲ 49.0% edge 2.0% ▼ 51.0%
MODERATE conviction
Factor breakdown
  • RSI mean-reversion (overbought/oversold) -0.269
  • EMA trend alignment (9 vs 21) +0.139
  • US Dollar (DXY) — inverse macro driver -0.042
  • Candle microstructure (body/range) -0.037
  • Stochastic momentum +0.030
  • Volume-confirmed conviction -0.006
  • Volatility regime (ATR breakout vs chop) -0.006
  • London/NY liquidity session +0.003

Next 1 hour

DOWN
4,088.402026-07-21 15:00:00-04:00
▲ 46.8% edge 6.3% ▼ 53.2%
STRONG conviction
Factor breakdown
  • RSI mean-reversion (overbought/oversold) -0.200
  • Bollinger band mean-reversion +0.197
  • VWAP mean-reversion -0.152
  • Stochastic momentum -0.061
  • London/NY liquidity session -0.051
  • EMA trend alignment (9 vs 21) +0.043
  • Volume-confirmed conviction +0.042
  • Price momentum (trend-following pressure) +0.028